Wednesday, March 25, 2009
New home sales rebounded unexpectedly last month, although numbers remain near a record lows.
The U.S. Commerce Department said February sales rose 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000, and that figure was up from an upwardly revised January figure of 322,000. Even after the revision of January’s sales numbers, the month remained the worst on records dating back to 1963.
Despite the jump, February’s sales were still down by more than 40 percent from the same month a year earlier.
The median sales price fell to $209,000, a record 18 percent drop from the same month last year. The median price is the midpoint, where half sell for more and half for less.
At the current sales pace, the government said it would take a year to exhaust the supply of new homes on the market. The glut of unsold homes and competition from deeply discounted foreclosed properties puts even more downward pressure on prices and on builders’ profits. At the same time, lower prices create buying opportunities for more potential buyers.
In February, sales in the South rose 9.7 percent from a month earlier, and 6.6 percent in the West. They dropped 9.1 percent in the Midwest and 3.3 percent in the Northeast.
The National Association of Realtors said Monday that February sales of existing homes grew 5.1 percent to an annual rate of 4.72 million, up from 4.49 million units in Januar
Courtesey of the Phoenix Business Journal
Make sure your home is easy to show!
To get your home sold quickly, it’s important that other agents in the area show it to as many potential buyers as possible. The first thing a good agent will do when working with buyers is talk to the buyer and learn what kind of home they are looking for. Then the agent will search all the available homes for those most closely matching what the buyer wants. Next, the agent puts together a list of the best matches to go show to the buyer. When a busy agent is compiling a list of homes to show a buyer, the agent will naturally tend to show those houses that are easiest to gain access to first. Many homes on the market have “lock boxes” on them. The lock box is a device which holds a key to the home, that only qualified local agents can access. Homes that are listed as being “lock box, no appointment needed” will get shown more often than homes listed as “agent has key, call for appointment”. If at all possible, you should let your agent put a lock box on your home for easier showing.
If you can’t do a lock box, you need to be sure that you make it as convenient and easy as possible for other agents to show your home. If they call, do whatever you have to do to accommodate letting them show your home to buyers on their schedule. If you don’t, the agent will probably show the buyer other homes, and if that buyer makes an offer on one of them, you’ve just lost a great opportunity.
It’s best if you can leave when the agent and buyer arrive to see your home. Buyers won’t feel comfortable with you there, and it could sour an otherwise good impression.
Contact Craig Connelly for more help and advice on getting your home sold................
Housing Market Analysis - Columbia, South Carolina
By Robert Denk
Assistant Staff Vice President, Forecasting & Analysis
National Association of Home Builders
August , 2008
The point that is overlooked all too often recently is that housing markets are local, local, local. And the Columbia market has all of the positive factors working in its favor and none of the negative factors working against it.
The 3 key factors driving housing market recoveries are:
(1) economic fundamentals (eg, employment and population growth)
(2) current local housing market conditions (eg, prices and inventories)
(3) mortgage pool quality (eg, subprime exposure and foreclosures)
The economic fundamentals in the Columbia market (MSA) are solid. Population and job growth are the backbone of a healthy housing market. While job growth is slowing and unemployment is rising, so far this year, both of these indicators remain better than the national averages. Over the longer term, population growth in Columbia has been well above the national average.
In terms of local housing market conditions, the Columbia market is in good shape. The Columbia market avoided the over-building and the unsustainable house price run-ups that have roiled some markets. Housing production remained near historical trend levels during the boom years of 2004 and 2005, in contrast to other markets that experienced spikes in production leaving them with large unsold inventories (see slides 23-26). The absence of over-building during the boom reduces the downward pressure on prices that other markets will contend with.
The Columbia market experienced moderate, sustainable house price appreciation, averaging roughly five percent per year in this decade, slightly above the appreciation rate during the 1990’s. This compares to double digit rates and rates in excess of twenty percent per year in other markets (see slides 17-20).
And while house prices have increased dramatically in some markets, doubling or
more in the most over-heated areas, basically forcing some reversal, the latest data show prices declining in the most over-heated markets, but continued modest increases in the Columbia market.
Currently, house prices in the Columbia market are at their historical average of roughly 2.7 times local area incomes. At the national level, house prices rose from an average 3.2 times income to 4.7 at the height of the housing boom. National house prices have since declined to 3.7 times income, partially correcting the affordability problem high prices generated. The stability of house prices in the Columbia market avoided this problem completely.
Mortgage pool quality is good compared to the national average (data is only available at state level, not by MSA). At the end of 2008Q2, nationally 5.6% of all outstanding mortgages were subprime ARMs. The foreclosure rates for these loans has risen steadily since 2005, currently stands a 6.6%, and will probably go higher.
In South Carolina, 3.5% of outstanding mortgages were subprime ARMs, with a foreclosure rate of 4.8%. For comparison, some of the most troubled markets (eg, Las Vegas, Phoenix, coastal Florida and parts of California) have subprime ARM exposure of 8%-12%, with foreclosure rates running at 8%-9%.
It's important to recognize that the national trends tend to be dominated by the largest states, which are also some of the most troubled housing markets. But these trends mask a substantial amount of geographic variation. Some local markets, the Columbia market included, are well positioned to return to more normal conditions more quickly than the national trends suggest.
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