Lexington S.C. Real Estate Blog

Housing Market Analysis - Columbia, South Carolina

By Robert Denk

Assistant Staff Vice President, Forecasting & Analysis

National Association of Home Builders

August , 2008

The point that is overlooked all too often recently is that housing markets are local, local, local. And the Columbia market has all of the positive factors working in its favor and none of the negative factors working against it.

The 3 key factors driving housing market recoveries are:

(1) economic fundamentals (eg, employment and population growth)

(2) current local housing market conditions (eg, prices and inventories)

(3) mortgage pool quality (eg, subprime exposure and foreclosures)

The economic fundamentals in the Columbia market (MSA) are solid. Population and job growth are the backbone of a healthy housing market. While job growth is slowing and unemployment is rising, so far this year, both of these indicators remain better than the national averages. Over the longer term, population growth in Columbia has been well above the national average.

In terms of local housing market conditions, the Columbia market is in good shape. The Columbia market avoided the over-building and the unsustainable house price run-ups that have roiled some markets. Housing production remained near historical trend levels during the boom years of 2004 and 2005, in contrast to other markets that experienced spikes in production leaving them with large unsold inventories (see slides 23-26). The absence of over-building during the boom reduces the downward pressure on prices that other markets will contend with.

The Columbia market experienced moderate, sustainable house price appreciation, averaging roughly five percent per year in this decade, slightly above the appreciation rate during the 1990’s. This compares to double digit rates and rates in excess of twenty percent per year in other markets (see slides 17-20).

And while house prices have increased dramatically in some markets, doubling or

more in the most over-heated areas, basically forcing some reversal, the latest data show prices declining in the most over-heated markets, but continued modest increases in the Columbia market.

Currently, house prices in the Columbia market are at their historical average of roughly 2.7 times local area incomes. At the national level, house prices rose from an average 3.2 times income to 4.7 at the height of the housing boom. National house prices have since declined to 3.7 times income, partially correcting the affordability problem high prices generated. The stability of house prices in the Columbia market avoided this problem completely.

Mortgage pool quality is good compared to the national average (data is only available at state level, not by MSA). At the end of 2008Q2, nationally 5.6% of all outstanding mortgages were subprime ARMs. The foreclosure rates for these loans has risen steadily since 2005, currently stands a 6.6%, and will probably go higher.

In South Carolina, 3.5% of outstanding mortgages were subprime ARMs, with a foreclosure rate of 4.8%. For comparison, some of the most troubled markets (eg, Las Vegas, Phoenix, coastal Florida and parts of California) have subprime ARM exposure of 8%-12%, with foreclosure rates running at 8%-9%.

It's important to recognize that the national trends tend to be dominated by the largest states, which are also some of the most troubled housing markets. But these trends mask a substantial amount of geographic variation. Some local markets, the Columbia market included, are well positioned to return to more normal conditions more quickly than the national trends suggest.